• Adam Timlett

Simulation in Economics and Biology Using the LSM (Lazy Stopping Model)

Updated: Dec 28, 2019

I gave this talk at the School of Economic Science on the 9th November 2019. In the talk I explain how to model systems in biology and economics using the 'Lazy Stopping Model' (or LSM). The model will be used to educate and inform decision-makers about strategies to manage projects which involve significant uncertainties. It can be used to inform decision-makers about their options and allow them to weigh up the pros and cons of different strategies with, a not previously available, precision. Donald Rumsfeld once said that there are 'knowns', 'known unknowns' and 'unknown unknowns'. He implied that it was not possible to forecast or deal with 'unknown unknowns'. The LSM, however, is a new kind of agent based model that simulates 'unknown unknowns' as 'traps' that the unwitting simulated agents can fall into. Using this approach it is possible to encode precise hypotheses about a range of potential 'unknown unknowns' and examine the value of different strategies used by the agents to either avoid or mitigate the results of falling into these traps.

#complexity #simulation #agility #antifragile #uncertainty #risk #strategy #economics

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